The Median Home Price in Medina and the Points Depends on Which Tab You Have Open

Pull up three different sites and search Yarrow Point home prices on the same afternoon. One will tell you the median is $7.8 million. Another will say $6.6 million. A third, if you catch it on the right day, will show $5.57 million. None of them are wrong. They are measuring different things, in different months, using different definitions of what a "sale" even means. If you are comparing Medina, Clyde Hill, Yarrow Point, and Hunts Point right now and trying to figure out which number to trust, the honest answer is that the number itself is the wrong place to start.

Four medians, one peninsula

Yarrow Point is a single peninsula of roughly 400 homes with one road in and out. It should be one of the easiest places in the region to get a clean read on price. Instead, depending on which tracker you check, the same market looks like this:

Two of these are measuring closed sales. One is measuring what sellers are asking, not what buyers are paying. Three cover different months entirely. Stack them side by side and you are not looking at four opinions about one market. You are looking at four different markets that happen to share a zip code and a season.

The math behind the swings

Here is the part that matters more than any single figure above. In May 2026, the MLS data feed for Yarrow Point recorded zero closed sales. None. When a month produces no closings, the "current" median simply carries forward whatever the last month's number was, which is why April's $7.5 million figure was still doing duty as the headline number weeks later. That same April reading was down 3.5 percent from March but up 35.2 percent from April of the prior year, and it sat nearly 24 percent above the trailing twelve-month average of $6.06 million. A single print moved the story from "cooling" to "still surging" to "elevated relative to trend," and all three descriptions were technically accurate at the same time.

This is what happens when the sample size is this small. Active inventory that same month sat at seven homes. Seven. At that volume, the sale of one $9 million architect-built estate and the sale of one $4.5 million original-condition ranch in the same thirty-day window can swing the median by a couple million dollars without anything in the underlying market actually changing. Months of supply worked out to roughly 4.3, which by the conventional rule of thumb reads as a balanced market, not the extreme seller's environment the headline price growth would suggest. The price and the supply picture were telling two different stories from the same data set.

Where the real deals happen

The other reason the published medians undersell the picture is structural, not statistical. A meaningful share of transactions at this price point never appear as a public listing at all. Owners in Medina, Clyde Hill, and the Points corridor frequently sell through private introductions and broker-to-broker conversations well before, or instead of, a home ever reaching the open market. That is not a rumor about this corridor. It is a documented feature of how ultra-high-value transactions move in tight, low-inventory enclaves where privacy is itself part of the value proposition.

That means the medians in the table above are drawn from a residual pool: the homes that, for whatever reason, went the conventional route. The most closely held sales, the ones that would tell you the most about where true value sits on a specific street or a specific stretch of shoreline, are often the ones you never see priced anywhere. If you are pricing a listing or evaluating an offer based only on what is publicly reported, you are working from a partial ledger.

Medina, Clyde Hill, and Yarrow Point aren't interchangeable

Even setting aside the volatility, treating these communities as one market flattens real differences. In the same reporting window used above, Clyde Hill's median closed sale price came in near $6.5 million at roughly $987 per square foot, while Medina's median sat closer to $6.2 million at about $1,120 per square foot. Yarrow Point's per-square-foot figure, at roughly $1,310, ran meaningfully higher than both. That gap is not a verdict on which city is "better." It reflects lot sizes, waterfront frontage, and the mix of teardown-ready original homes against ground-up modern estates that happened to close in that particular window.

King County's own property assessment structure treats Medina, Clyde Hill, Hunts Point, and Yarrow Point as a single geographic reporting area for tax valuation purposes, even though each is its own incorporated city with separate governance, its own permitting process, and in some cases its own police department. A shared assessor's area is a convenience for county recordkeeping. It is not a signal that a buyer should expect similar pricing, timelines, or negotiating dynamics from one city to the next. All four communities are served by Bellevue School District, but beyond that shared amenity, the market mechanics diverge house by house and street by street.

What this means if you're pricing a home here

None of this means the data is useless. It means the data answers a narrower question than most people assume. A median tells you what happened to close, in one window, among the properties that were public. It does not tell you what a specific home on a specific lot, with a specific dock and a specific orientation to the water, is actually worth.

The practical response is the same one that applies to any market this thin: build the valuation from direct comparisons, not headline averages. A classic mid-century home on an interior street and a newly built modern waterfront estate two doors down can carry values that differ by millions per acre, and no median will capture that distinction. Ask what closed, not what is trending. Ask whether the comparable sale you are being shown actually happened on the open market or reflects an estimate layered on top of a private transaction nobody disclosed. And treat any single month's median the way you would treat a single data point from a market with seven active listings, which is to say, as a starting question rather than a finished answer.

FAQ

Why did my own online estimate come in millions apart from what a local agent quoted me? Online estimates are typically built from broad statistical models that struggle when actual comparable sales are scarce and a meaningful share of transactions never become public data at all. In a corridor this small, a direct, line-item comparison of finishes, lot, and shoreline access will diverge from an algorithmic estimate more than it would in a larger, more liquid market.

Is Yarrow Point actually more expensive than Medina? Based on the same reporting window, Yarrow Point's price per square foot ran higher than both Medina and Clyde Hill. But with only a handful of homes closing in any given month across each city, that ranking can shift the next time a different mix of properties trades. Treat it as a snapshot, not a permanent hierarchy.

If inventory is this low, why does the market read as balanced instead of a seller's market? Months of supply is a ratio of what is listed against what is selling. When both numbers are small, as they are in Yarrow Point, the ratio can land in "balanced" territory even while headline prices are climbing sharply year over year. Low absolute inventory and a balanced supply ratio are not contradictory. They are both symptoms of the same thin market.

If you are trying to price a home, or an offer, anywhere in this corridor, the number on a portal is a place to start the conversation, not a place to end it. Lisa Turnure works this exact stretch of the Eastside and can walk you through the actual comparable sales, on-market and off, behind whatever figure you found online. Receive Exclusive Listings to see what's moving in Medina, Clyde Hill, and the Points before it becomes next month's median.